26 June 2012

Was I right?

As Atma Business Blog recently eclipsed its two year anniversary mark, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how its predictions have fared thus far (yes a bit narcissistic I know).  First and foremost, I would like to thank all of my readers who have been with me since 2010 (Is M&A still evil?) and those that have only recently been able to bear my ramblings.  The most rewarding element for me has been the interesting dialogue, comments, and push back generated which has changed my viewpoints on many of the topics addressed.  It's also been nice to be published on some leading business sites along the way.  On to the results:

Monetization versus Free: I predicted the demise of Netflix's power as the content guys gain more courage to charge.  This has happened much quicker than I expected.  Even Apple hasn't cracked the negotiations code with TV as their offerings have been less than modest so far.  More broadly, I wrote about the end of our honeymoon of all things free.  Everything from apps to entertainment are moving to pay-based models.  There is still room to go.  Most news content is still free; powerful services such as Maps and service tools we have taken for granted might require a credit card soon.  I still can't figure out how FB or app developers can monetize enough.  Can you imagine a monthly fee to remain a LinkedIn member ?

Meaningful Innovators: An area of particular passion for me, I've spent many characters on true disruptors that not only changed industries but also broader stakeholders that they affect.  All but 2 of Fortune's Top Entrepreneurs (sorry FedEx, Infosys for the oversight) have been featured in my posts in varying contexts (ie. Bill Gates' pledge).  I continue to seek those that leverage their success for the greater good and bring significant consumer-focused improvement to a given market. Continue to send me leads!

Transactions and Financial Sponsors: I've written about the perils and advantages of M&A and those that drive them.  Large scale transactions continue to fail while focused ones have a better chance at success.  Given the backdrop of slowing earnings and long-term debt of the country, expect the traditional tools of leverage and cluster investing to not be enough to generate returns for investment funds.  Since the Facebook disaster, there has not been an IPO executed.  It's not a bubble, I promise.

Social Entrepreneurs:  Traditional businesses, non-profits, and individual entrepreneurs all have an obligation and ability to lift society through efficient market-driven ways.  From microfinance to fair trade, I've written about many of these innovative efforts.  I was disappointed to learn about the lack of tech philanthropists, but happy to see "feel good" concepts being more integrated into daily transactions.  The internet is the ultimate scalable tool, let's use it to the fullest extent we can.  In addition, building sustainable platforms is just good business.
Other Notes:  I can't figure Amazon out.  It caved faster than I expected on sales taxes. I thought it was well equipped to swing at Walmart, but it seems to have refocused on digital products.  I loved GroupOnomics but its model has had less of an impact than I expected so far.  I still don't have clear visibility into the next US jobs engine or how to retrain the existing employee base, but let's hope our core strengths (innovation, entrepreneurship) can carry us beyond the strong headwinds that are coming our way.

In the end, it's about creative entrepreneurs that take on the oligarchs, large companies that eclipse the innovator's dilemma, and capitalistic efforts that yield powerful businesses and meaningful benefits to society.  I will continue to write along these lines as I hope to bring unique, unbiased perspectives on current business events and trends.  In return, I only have three requests from my reader base:  1) Do not spam my posts (rather pass along the interesting ones) 2) Continue to send me ideas and suggestions on content 3) Send ideas on outlets to approach or ways to market my site to a wider audience (since I have no idea on how to do so).   There you have it - I have now linked to more than 1/3 of my articles to date.  Thanks for reading.

Keep reading, commenting, and pass along to anyone that may be interested in reading.


  1. Great stuff! can i post this link on my fb account?

    1. Of course. The more the merrier. Also follow Atma on Twitter @atmabus

    2. sweet. how come this is not on facebook dude. maybe create a page that people can 'like'

  2. I love when people go back and analyze their past analysis.
    Good stuff